Beating Broke

Personal Finance from the Broke Perspective

401(k) Loans as Recession Insurance?

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With a recession (depending on whom you ask) upon us, would it have been wise for us to have taken a loan from our 401(k)s before it started?  Bear with me here for a second.  A loan from your 401(k) is pretty simple.  You borrow the money from yourself and then repay it to the 401(k) with interest.  The interest is usually something low.  Normally, it’s a bad idea, as the market usually performs as well, if not better, than the interest on the loan.

But, if (and that’s a big if) you were able to time the market relatively well to know there was going to be a downturn, you could loan the money to yourself.  Because the money would not be in the account, it wouldn’t suffer from the loss of value in your investments.  And instead, you’d gain whatever the interest rate was that you loaned the money for.  Instead of a double digit loss, you could have a relatively decent gain.  In theory it could work.

In theory.  The catch here is that you would have to time the market correctly.  If you missed it by a day, you could cost yourself some money.  If you were totally wrong and the market rallied, you’d end up missing out on possible gains.  But, if it worked, it could work out pretty well.  In the end, the more I look at it, it’s really a form of gambling.  You’re gambling that you can time the market and save your money.

Gambling is never a safe bet when it comes to your retirement.  It’s always tempting though.  It’s important to remember that a fall like we had over the last few years almost always comes back up.  You haven’t really lost money so much as lost value.  There’s a big difference there.  And if you keep contributing, which you should, you’re buying the very same investments at a bargain price.  So, instead of trying to minimize your losses by pulling your money out, you should be increasing your investment to maximize your return when the account finally bounces back up.

Yes, Peer-to-Peer Lending is Risky, But Not Cursed

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After my last two posts, and then this one, you must be beginning to think that this is P2P lending week here at Beating Broke.  I hadn’t intended it to be this way, but it just seems like that  is what’s on the brain and it’s getting a bit of buzz lately too.

Jim, from Bargaineering, wrote an article today about how risky peer-to-peer lending can be.  I completely agree.   But, he also made it sound like he thought that they should be avoided altogether.   And that I disagree with.

P2P lending is risky.  It’s just as risky as bank lending is for banks.  And look at the mess they found themselves in not too long ago.  But, as P2P lenders, we can learn a lesson from that.  First, you shouldn’t be investing your nest egg in anything this risky.  Once again, diversification is the key.  On a scale of risk, P2P lending lands somewhere on the risky side of stocks.  So, if you properly diversify, P2P should probably only make up about 2-5% of your portfolio. Also, the banks lent out way too much of their portfolios to way too many people that they really shouldn’t have.  If you’re careful about who you lend to, you should be able to significantly reduce the risk.  What that means is that you probably won’t be lending to to many people who will be paying 20% on their loans, and will be lending to more people who are paying in the 4-7% range.  That’s OK.

Why any at all?  Because the returns can be pretty good.  Depending on the model you take, your return can be in the 5% range.  The riskier loans you lend to, the higher the potential return.  Some of them are in the 20% range.   Of course, the caveat there is that those are also the most risky loans and the most likely to default.  And, much like in the banking world, if a borrower defaults on a loan, you will lose money.  You might manage to recover some of the money through collections, but it will only be a percent of what you lent out.

My advice?  (not that it’s worth much) Be cautious.  Don’t lend more than you can stand to lose, and keep the ratio of P2P investing pretty low in your diversified portfolio.  Do your research.  Lending to some 24 year old who is using the money to finance a class on real estate investing is probably not the best idea.  Chances are, that loan is headed for default.  On the other hand, lending to a mother/father of 3 who is going to use the money as a down payment on a house could be a safer loan.  In the comments of Jim’s post, he mentions that he doesn’t invest in anything that he doesn’t understand.  He doesn’t invest in options or futures because he doesn’t understand them either.  That’s a very valid point, but I think it really boils down to how much information you want.

I think if Jim wanted to, he could find all the information he wanted to learn how to use option and futures investing.  (note: I don’t understand them either and don’t invest in them.)  P2P lending is a bit of a different cookie though.  The bones of it are simple.  One person is lending money to another person.  In essence, as a lender, you are the bank.  Using the available data, you review the loan applications and decide on which ones have the least risk of default.  If you feel like taking on some riskier loans, you decide how risky and modify your acceptance practices to reflect.  Is there more to it than that?  Of course.  But, if you keep your wits and only dabble a little while you’re learning the ropes, you can learn all of the intricacies from trial and error while not losing your shirt.

As with anything, there is risk involved.  P2P lending has much more than most investing models.  If you are adverse to risk, you really should probably avoid it.  If not, get your feet wet.  And per the usual disclaimer, seek the advice of a professional before making any major decisions.

Update: It seems the original story that spawned all of this (here at The Big Money) caused a bit of a stir at Prosper.com headquarters.  They’re asking for a retraction and refuted the article with some of their own facts.

You Are Not Losing Money In Your 401(k)!

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I was watching my local news when they did a spot on people who were vacationing a little closer to home this holiday season because of the economy or other reasons when one of the people who they interviewed blamed their need for staying closer to having lost money in her 401(k).  Besides the fact that that money is, for all intents and purposes, off limits until you retire, and really has no effect on your current financial standing, how do you lose money in your 401(k)?

Did it get misplaced?

I’m being a bit facetious here to prove a point.  To lose money implies that the money is no longer yours.  Except that the majority of your “money” in a 401(k) isn’t actually money.  It’s shares of companies or mutual funds or index funds or ETFs.  You aren’t losing money.  You’re losing value.  The securities that you purchased with your money are not as valuable as they were when you bought them.  You still own the same amount of securities, which you converted your money to, so you still have all of your money.  It’s the value that you’ve lost.

Better example.  You buy a car for $10,000.  After driving the car for 5 years, you sell it for $5000.  Did you lose $5000 on the car?  Not really.  Very few people will think of it that way.  Because most people do not assume that they will gain value in a car, so they accept that they will not be able to sell the car for the same amount they bought it for.  And it is almost guaranteed that it won’t gain any value.  Again, though, you lost value, not money.

Losing value isn’t as bad as losing money. Why? Because, unless you need to realize that value immediately, you have time to wait and see if the value does go up.  And with securities, chances are that they will.  And in a locked up instrument like a 401(k) with all it’s penalties to discourage realizing that value until retirement, many of us have decades to wait and see how things turn out.  And, if I were a betting man (which I am sometimes), I would put pretty good odds on my 401(K) gaining value between now and when I need to withdraw any of it.

Note: I don’t encourage waiting to see if the value of your car will go up.  Unless you plan on waiting decades for that also in hopes that it will become a classic collectable.